Ellerton 5–2 Deacons: Result & Stats

Ellerton

FT

5 – 2

Deacons

6/8/2023

Premier League · Round 8Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ellerton57%

×Draw20%

Deacons23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EllertonExpected goals in this matchDeacons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.42

Ellerton

2.29

Deacons

1.42

Ellerton creates 61% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 32 away

1.95

creates per match

1.47

1.38

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Ellerton

1.95

Deacons

1.47

allows per match

Ellerton

1.38

Deacons

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par

Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Deacons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw

77%

Ellerton or Deacons

80%

Draw or Deacons

43%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+

35%

Deacons wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals

90%

Ellerton 2+ goals

66%

Ellerton 3+ goals

40%

Deacons 1+ goals

76%

Deacons 2+ goals

41%

Deacons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)

71%

Deacons (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.95 + Deacons defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.29

Deacons attack 1.47 + Ellerton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ellerton scores more

57%

level

20%

Deacons scores more

23%

Ellerton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff