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Elite United vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

Elite United
Elite United
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
2/17/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Elite United27%
×Draw31%
Real de Banjul42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elite United
0.82
Real de Banjul
1.11

Real de Banjul creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 88 away

creates per match

Elite United
0.96
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

Elite United
1.07
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

Elite United+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elite United ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Elite United or draw
58%
Elite United or Real de Banjul
69%
Draw or Real de Banjul
73%

Winning margin

Elite United wins by 2+
9%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Elite United 1+ goals
56%
Elite United 2+ goals
20%
Elite United 3+ goals
5%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
67%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
30%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Elite United (draw refunded)
39%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elite United at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elite United attack 0.96 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + Elite United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Elite United scores more
27%
level
31%
Real de Banjul scores more
42%

Real de Banjul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Elite United 0–3 Real de Banjul

Real de Banjul beat Elite United 3-0 in GFA League on February 17, 2022.