Elite United 0–1 Marimoo: Result & Stats

Elite United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marimoo

7/27/2022

GFA League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Elite United35%

×Draw31%

Marimoo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elite UnitedExpected goals in this matchMarimoo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.98

Elite United

0.99

Marimoo

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 73 away

0.96

creates per match

0.89

1.07

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Elite United

0.96

Marimoo

0.89

allows per match

Elite United

1.07

Marimoo

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elite United+0.00on par

Marimoo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elite United ↓

Marimoo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Elite United or draw

66%

Elite United or Marimoo

69%

Draw or Marimoo

65%

Winning margin

Elite United wins by 2+

13%

Marimoo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Elite United 1+ goals

63%

Elite United 2+ goals

26%

Elite United 3+ goals

8%

Marimoo 1+ goals

62%

Marimoo 2+ goals

26%

Marimoo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Elite United (draw refunded)

50%

Marimoo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elite United at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Marimoo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elite United attack 0.96 + Marimoo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Marimoo attack 0.89 + Elite United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Elite United scores more

35%

level

31%

Marimoo scores more

34%

Elite United at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Elite United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff