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Elgin City vs Stranraer — League Two 2018

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stranraer
Stranraer
1/6/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 19Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Elgin City44%
×Draw25%
Stranraer31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
1.54
Stranraer
1.25

Elgin City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 103 away

creates per match

Elgin City
1.53
Stranraer
1.14

allows per match

Elgin City
1.36
Stranraer
1.54

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
69%
Elgin City or Stranraer
75%
Draw or Stranraer
56%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
22%
Stranraer wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
79%
Elgin City 2+ goals
45%
Elgin City 3+ goals
20%
Stranraer 1+ goals
71%
Stranraer 2+ goals
36%
Stranraer 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
59%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elgin City scores more
44%
level
25%
Stranraer scores more
31%

Elgin City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elgin City vs Stranraer

Elgin City beat Stranraer 2-1 in League Two on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.