Elgin City 1–0 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Elgin City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

M. Machado 71'

2/21/2026

League Two · Round 26Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Elgin City39%

×Draw25%

Stirling Albion36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elgin CityExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.38

Elgin City

1.43

Stirling Albion

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 117 away

1.53

creates per match

1.40

1.36

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Elgin City

1.53

Stirling Albion

1.40

allows per match

Elgin City

1.36

Stirling Albion

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw

64%

Elgin City or Stirling Albion

75%

Draw or Stirling Albion

61%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+

18%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals

76%

Elgin City 2+ goals

42%

Elgin City 3+ goals

17%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

75%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

40%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)

52%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elgin City scores more

39%

level

25%

Stirling Albion scores more

36%

Elgin City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

58'

62'

62'

67'

67'

71'

80'

80'

A. Spalding← M. Gallagher

81'

81'

86'

86'

90'

R. Hickey←

Elgin

Stirling

1

34

4

23

30

8

▼

Carse

5

▼

McNab

6

Banner

11

Brown

25

▼

Hilson

29

▼

Shanley

28

McHale

5

▼

16

6

19

7

22

4

10

▼

Gallagher

17

▼

Hyde

24

▼

Walker

Manager: Allan Hale

62'▲O. Cairns←▼K. Girvan

62'▲M. Machado←▼L. Hyde

80'▲K. Hester←▼J. Walker

80'▲A. Spalding←▼M. Gallagher

90'▲R. Hickey←▼—

Elgin City substitutes

21Taylor8Cameron9Hester11Sargent12Cairns20Spalding25Thompson26Hickey27Machado

Manager: Alan Maybury

67'▲M. Russell←▼R. McNab

67'▲R. McLean←▼D. Hilson

81'▲C. Thomson←▼M. Carse

81'▲H. Welsh←▼R. Shanley

Stirling Albion substitutes

31Duffy7Thomson10Russell12Knox16Denham17McLean18Welsh28Cannon