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Elgin City vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
10/24/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Elgin City40%
×Draw26%
Stenhousemuir35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
1.43
Stenhousemuir
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 78 away

creates per match

Elgin City
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.28

allows per match

Elgin City
1.36
Stenhousemuir
1.33

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
65%
Elgin City or Stenhousemuir
74%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
60%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
19%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
76%
Elgin City 2+ goals
42%
Elgin City 3+ goals
17%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
73%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
38%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
53%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elgin City scores more
40%
level
26%
Stenhousemuir scores more
35%

Elgin City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Elgin City 1–1 Stenhousemuir

Elgin City and Stenhousemuir drew 1-1 in League Two on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.