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Elgin City vs Queen of the South — League Cup 2018

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
7/23/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elgin City14%
×Draw18%
Queen of the South68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
0.97
Queen of the South
2.34

Queen of the South creates 141% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elgin City
0.75
Queen of the South
1.93

allows per match

Elgin City
2.75
Queen of the South
1.20

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
32%
Elgin City or Queen of the South
82%
Draw or Queen of the South
86%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
5%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
62%
Elgin City 2+ goals
25%
Elgin City 3+ goals
7%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
90%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
67%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
17%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 0.75 + Queen of the South defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Queen of the South attack 1.93 + Elgin City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Elgin City scores more
14%
level
18%
Queen of the South scores more
68%

Queen of the South at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Elgin City 0–2 Queen of the South

Queen of the South beat Elgin City 2-0 in League Cup on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.