Elgin City 0–2 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Elgin City

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Motherwell

7/15/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Elgin City12%

×Draw18%

Motherwell70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elgin CityExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.23

Elgin City

0.77

Motherwell

2.23

Motherwell creates 190% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

0.75

creates per match

1.71

2.75

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Elgin City

0.75

Motherwell

1.71

allows per match

Elgin City

2.75

Motherwell

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Motherwell →

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw

30%

Elgin City or Motherwell

82%

Draw or Motherwell

88%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+

Motherwell wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals

54%

Elgin City 2+ goals

18%

Elgin City 3+ goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

89%

Motherwell 2+ goals

65%

Motherwell 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)

14%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 0.75 + Motherwell defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Motherwell attack 1.71 + Elgin City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Elgin City scores more

12%

level

18%

Motherwell scores more

70%

Motherwell at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff