Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts — League Two 2018
Kelty Hearts score first in only 23% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Elgin City29%Kelty Hearts46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kelty Hearts creates 30% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Elgin City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches
Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Elgin City attack 1.53 + Kelty Hearts defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.19
Kelty Hearts attack 1.74 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Kelty Hearts at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams score in 79% of Elgin City’s matches
- Both teams score in 77% of Kelty Hearts’s matches
- 71% of Elgin City’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Elgin City score first in 64% of matches
- Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 62% over 2.5)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Elgin City host Kelty Hearts on Saturday, 30 January 2027 at 15:00. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts — Match Preview
Elgin City face Kelty Hearts on January 30, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Elgin City host Kelty Hearts at Borough Briggs.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.