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Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts — FA Cup 2019

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
11/30/2024FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundBorough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Elgin City60%
×Draw20%
Kelty Hearts20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
2.25
Kelty Hearts
1.25

Elgin City creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Elgin City
2.00
Kelty Hearts
0.67

allows per match

Elgin City
1.82
Kelty Hearts
2.50

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Kelty Hearts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
80%
Elgin City or Kelty Hearts
80%
Draw or Kelty Hearts
40%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
37%
Kelty Hearts wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
89%
Elgin City 2+ goals
65%
Elgin City 3+ goals
39%
Kelty Hearts 1+ goals
71%
Kelty Hearts 2+ goals
36%
Kelty Hearts 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
74%
Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 2.00 + Kelty Hearts defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kelty Hearts attack 0.67 + Elgin City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Elgin City scores more
60%
level
20%
Kelty Hearts scores more
20%

Elgin City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts

Elgin City beat Kelty Hearts 3-2 in FA Cup on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.