Elgin City 1–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Elgin City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

East Fife

2/1/2025

League Two · Round 23Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Elgin City39%

×Draw26%

East Fife35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elgin CityExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.33

Elgin City

1.41

East Fife

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 54 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

1.36

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Elgin City

1.53

East Fife

1.30

allows per match

Elgin City

1.36

East Fife

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw

65%

Elgin City or East Fife

74%

Draw or East Fife

61%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+

18%

East Fife wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals

76%

Elgin City 2+ goals

41%

Elgin City 3+ goals

17%

East Fife 1+ goals

74%

East Fife 2+ goals

38%

East Fife 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)

52%

East Fife (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

East Fife away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + East Fife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

East Fife attack 1.30 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elgin City scores more

39%

level

26%

East Fife scores more

35%

Elgin City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff