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Elgin City vs Deveronvale — FA Cup 2019

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deveronvale
Deveronvale
R. Sargent 90'
J. Murray 62'
C. Angus 85'
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundBorough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elgin City37%
×Draw23%
Deveronvale40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
1.67
Deveronvale
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Elgin City
2.00
Deveronvale
1.67

allows per match

Elgin City
1.82
Deveronvale
1.33

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Deveronvale+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Deveronvale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
60%
Elgin City or Deveronvale
77%
Draw or Deveronvale
63%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
19%
Deveronvale wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
81%
Elgin City 2+ goals
50%
Elgin City 3+ goals
23%
Deveronvale 1+ goals
83%
Deveronvale 2+ goals
52%
Deveronvale 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
48%
Deveronvale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Deveronvale away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 2.00 + Deveronvale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Deveronvale attack 1.67 + Elgin City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elgin City scores more
37%
level
23%
Deveronvale scores more
40%

Deveronvale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deveronvale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
A. Spalding
62'
J. Murray
85'
C. Angus
90'
R. Sargent
Elgin
Deveronvale
Allan Hale
Manager: Allan Hale
Garry Wood
Manager: Garry Wood

FA Cup: Elgin City 2–1 Deveronvale

Elgin City beat Deveronvale 2-1 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Murray (62'), C. Angus (85'), R. Sargent (90').

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.