Elgin City 2–4 Berwick Rangers: Result & Stats

Elgin City

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Berwick Rangers

M. Cooper 72'

J. McGovern 65'

P. Willis 79', 26'

11/10/2018

League Two · Round 12Borough Briggs (Elgin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Elgin City62%

×Draw20%

Berwick Rangers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elgin CityExpected goals in this matchBerwick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.07

Elgin City

2.18

Berwick Rangers

1.07

Elgin City creates 104% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 18 away

1.53

creates per match

0.78

1.36

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Elgin City

1.53

Berwick Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Elgin City

1.36

Berwick Rangers

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Berwick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw

82%

Elgin City or Berwick Rangers

80%

Draw or Berwick Rangers

38%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+

39%

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals

89%

Elgin City 2+ goals

64%

Elgin City 3+ goals

37%

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

66%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

29%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)

78%

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.18

Berwick Rangers attack 0.78 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Elgin City scores more

62%

level

20%

Berwick Rangers scores more

18%

Elgin City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

P. Willis

50'

C. Beattie← G. Morrison

65'

R. Farquhar← D. Byrne

65'

J. McGovern

70'

K. Hay← R. Omar

72'

M. Cooper

78'

A. Mcilduff← J. Orru

79'

P. Willis

87'

J. Ogilvie← G. Phillips

90+1'

A. Murrell← R. Brown

Elgin

Berwick

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Price

50'▲C. Beattie←▼G. Morrison

65'▲R. Farquhar←▼D. Byrne

70'▲K. Hay←▼R. Omar

Elgin City substitutes

BeattieFarquharHaySopelWilsonMillerMcHale

Manager: J. Harvey

78'▲A. Mcilduff←▼J. Orru

87'▲J. Ogilvie←▼G. Phillips

90+1'▲A. Murrell←▼R. Brown

Berwick Rangers substitutes

McilduffOgilvieMurrellHurstAllison

League Two: Elgin City 2–4 Berwick Rangers

Berwick Rangers beat Elgin City 4-2 in League Two on November 10, 2018.

Goals: P. Willis (26', 79'), J. McGovern (65'), M. Cooper (72').

The match was played at Borough Briggs (Elgin).

Elgin City vs Berwick Rangers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Elgin City 2–4 Berwick Rangers