Elgin City 0–4 Ayr Utd: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Elgin City

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Ayr Utd

3/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBorough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Elgin City25%

×Draw20%

Ayr Utd54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elgin CityExpected goals in this matchAyr Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.25

Elgin City

1.50

Ayr Utd

2.25

Ayr Utd creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.67

1.82

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Elgin City

2.00

Ayr Utd

2.67

allows per match

Elgin City

1.82

Ayr Utd

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Ayr Utd →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw

46%

Elgin City or Ayr Utd

80%

Draw or Ayr Utd

75%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+

11%

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals

78%

Elgin City 2+ goals

44%

Elgin City 3+ goals

19%

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

89%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

65%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)

32%

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 2.00 + Ayr Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ayr Utd attack 2.67 + Elgin City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elgin City scores more

25%

level

20%

Ayr Utd scores more

54%

Ayr Utd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff