Elgin City 0–3 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Elgin City

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Alloa Athletic

J. Hastie 53', 2'

A. Trouten 11'

7/24/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Borough Briggs (Elgin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elgin City20%

×Draw20%

Alloa Athletic60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elgin CityExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.24

Elgin City

1.24

Alloa Athletic

2.24

Alloa Athletic creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

0.75

creates per match

1.73

2.75

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Elgin City

0.75

Alloa Athletic

1.73

allows per match

Elgin City

2.75

Alloa Athletic

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw

40%

Elgin City or Alloa Athletic

80%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

80%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals

71%

Elgin City 2+ goals

35%

Elgin City 3+ goals

13%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

89%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

65%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)

25%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 0.75 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.24

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Elgin City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Elgin City scores more

20%

level

20%

Alloa Athletic scores more

60%

Alloa Athletic at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

J. Hastie

11'

A. Trouten

46'

C. McLeish← A. Ballam

53'

J. Hastie↳ R. Peggie

60'

S. Hetherington← A. Trouten

74'

A. Sutherland← R. Omar

82'

M. Taylor← K. Hay

Elgin

Alloa

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Price

46'▲C. McLeish←▼A. Ballam

74'▲A. Sutherland←▼R. Omar

82'▲M. Taylor←▼K. Hay

Elgin City substitutes

9McLeish11Sutherland19Taylor14McDade1Ross8Thomson

Manager: J. Goodwin

60'▲S. Hetherington←▼A. Trouten

Alloa Athletic substitutes

6Hetherington31Henry20Goodwin18Aloulou

League Cup: Elgin City 0–3 Alloa Athletic

Alloa Athletic beat Elgin City 3-0 in League Cup on July 24, 2018.

Goals: J. Hastie (2', 53'), A. Trouten (11').

The match was played at Borough Briggs (Elgin).

Elgin City vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Elgin City 0–3 Alloa Athletic