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Elfsborg W vs KIF Örebro W — Elitettan 2021

Elfsborg W
Elfsborg W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
10/4/2025ElitettanElitettan · Round 21Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Elfsborg W30%
×Draw24%
KIF Örebro W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elfsborg W
1.35
KIF Örebro W
1.71

KIF Örebro W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Elfsborg W
1.50
KIF Örebro W
2.58

allows per match

Elfsborg W
0.83
KIF Örebro W
1.21

finishing

Elfsborg W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elfsborg W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Elfsborg W or draw
54%
Elfsborg W or KIF Örebro W
76%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
70%

Winning margin

Elfsborg W wins by 2+
13%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Elfsborg W 1+ goals
74%
Elfsborg W 2+ goals
39%
Elfsborg W 3+ goals
15%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
82%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
51%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Elfsborg W (draw refunded)
40%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elfsborg W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elfsborg W attack 1.50 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

KIF Örebro W attack 2.58 + Elfsborg W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elfsborg W scores more
30%
level
24%
KIF Örebro W scores more
46%

KIF Örebro W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KIF Örebro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elfsborg W vs KIF Örebro W

Elfsborg W and KIF Örebro W drew 1-1 in Elitettan on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.