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Eleven Wonders vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
0 – 1
WAFA
WAFA
A. Boakye 33'
12/5/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eleven Wonders43%
×Draw29%
WAFA27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.21
WAFA
0.89

Eleven Wonders creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 42 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
WAFA
0.74

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
WAFA
1.38

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
73%
Eleven Wonders or WAFA
71%
Draw or WAFA
57%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
19%
WAFA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
70%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
34%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
12%
WAFA 1+ goals
59%
WAFA 2+ goals
22%
WAFA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
62%
WAFA (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + WAFA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

WAFA attack 0.74 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
43%
level
29%
WAFA scores more
27%

Eleven Wonders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. Agyepong← S. Agyepong
13'
P. Baffoe← P. Baffoe
31'
33'
A. Boakye
54'
P. Okraku← P. Okraku
79'
O. Ashitey← O. Ashitey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eleven Wonders vs WAFA

WAFA beat Eleven Wonders 1-0 in Premier League on December 5, 2020.

Goals: A. Boakye (33').

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.