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Eleven Wonders vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
6/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders36%
×Draw32%
Hearts of Oak32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
0.96
Hearts of Oak
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 108 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
68%
Eleven Wonders or Hearts of Oak
68%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
64%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
13%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
62%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
25%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
7%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
59%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
22%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
53%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
36%
level
32%
Hearts of Oak scores more
32%

Eleven Wonders at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Eleven Wonders 2–1 Hearts of Oak

Eleven Wonders beat Hearts of Oak 2-1 in Premier League on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.