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Eleven Wonders vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
2 – 0
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
11/20/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Eleven Wonders46%
×Draw29%
Ebusua Dwarfs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.29
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.89

Eleven Wonders creates 45% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 31 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.74

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.52

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
74%
Eleven Wonders or Ebusua Dwarfs
71%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
54%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
21%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
72%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
37%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
14%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
59%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
22%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
64%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.74 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
46%
level
29%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
26%

Eleven Wonders at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eleven Wonders vs Ebusua Dwarfs

Eleven Wonders beat Ebusua Dwarfs 2-0 in Premier League on November 20, 2020.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.