Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eleven Wonders vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
3 – 1
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
6/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders47%
×Draw28%
Berekum Chelsea25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.31
Berekum Chelsea
0.88

Eleven Wonders creates 49% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 108 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Berekum Chelsea
0.73

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Berekum Chelsea
1.57

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
75%
Eleven Wonders or Berekum Chelsea
72%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
53%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
22%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
73%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
38%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
14%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
59%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
22%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
65%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
47%
level
28%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
25%

Eleven Wonders at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eleven Wonders vs Berekum Chelsea

Eleven Wonders beat Berekum Chelsea 3-1 in Premier League on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.