Eleven Wonders 2–1 Aduana Stars: Result & Stats

Eleven Wonders

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aduana Stars

6/19/2022

Premier League · Round 34Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders42%

×Draw30%

Aduana Stars28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eleven WondersExpected goals in this matchAduana Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.89

Eleven Wonders

1.15

Aduana Stars

0.89

Eleven Wonders creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 110 away

1.05

creates per match

0.75

1.03

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Eleven Wonders

1.05

Aduana Stars

0.75

allows per match

Eleven Wonders

1.03

Aduana Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Aduana Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw

72%

Eleven Wonders or Aduana Stars

70%

Draw or Aduana Stars

58%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+

18%

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals

68%

Eleven Wonders 2+ goals

32%

Eleven Wonders 3+ goals

11%

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

59%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

22%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)

60%

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more

42%

level

30%

Aduana Stars scores more

28%

Eleven Wonders at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff