Eleven Wonders 2–0 Accra Lions: Result & Stats

Eleven Wonders

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Accra Lions

4/3/2022

Premier League · Round 23Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders49%

×Draw29%

Accra Lions23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eleven WondersExpected goals in this matchAccra Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.80

Eleven Wonders

1.31

Accra Lions

0.80

Eleven Wonders creates 64% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 67 away

1.05

creates per match

0.58

1.03

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Eleven Wonders

1.05

Accra Lions

0.58

allows per match

Eleven Wonders

1.03

Accra Lions

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Accra Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw

77%

Eleven Wonders or Accra Lions

71%

Draw or Accra Lions

51%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+

23%

Accra Lions wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals

73%

Eleven Wonders 2+ goals

38%

Eleven Wonders 3+ goals

14%

Accra Lions 1+ goals

55%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

19%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)

68%

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more

49%

level

29%

Accra Lions scores more

23%

Eleven Wonders at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff