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Eleven Wise vs New Edubiase — Division One League 2025

Eleven Wise
Eleven Wise
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
New Edubiase
New Edubiase
12/14/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Eleven Wise45%
×Draw31%
New Edubiase24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wise
1.17
New Edubiase
0.77

Eleven Wise creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Eleven Wise
1.13
New Edubiase
0.73

allows per match

Eleven Wise
0.80
New Edubiase
1.20

finishing

Eleven Wise+0.00on par
New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wise ↓

New Edubiase →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eleven Wise or draw
76%
Eleven Wise or New Edubiase
69%
Draw or New Edubiase
55%

Winning margin

Eleven Wise wins by 2+
20%
New Edubiase wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eleven Wise 1+ goals
69%
Eleven Wise 2+ goals
33%
Eleven Wise 3+ goals
11%
New Edubiase 1+ goals
54%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
18%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wise (draw refunded)
65%
New Edubiase (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wise at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wise attack 1.13 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + Eleven Wise defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eleven Wise scores more
45%
level
31%
New Edubiase scores more
24%

Eleven Wise at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eleven Wise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Eleven Wise 2–1 New Edubiase

Eleven Wise beat New Edubiase 2-1 in Division One League on December 14, 2025.