Elektron VN 0–7 Zvezda St. Petersburg

Elektron VN

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Zvezda St. Petersburg

9/9/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN29%

×Draw24%

Zvezda St. Petersburg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elektron VNExpected goals in this matchZvezda St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.69

Elektron VN

1.28

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.69

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 89 away

0.87

creates per match

1.22

2.17

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Elektron VN

0.87

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.22

allows per match

Elektron VN

2.17

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw

53%

Elektron VN or Zvezda St. Petersburg

76%

Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg

71%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+

12%

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals

72%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

37%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

14%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

82%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

50%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

38%

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elektron VN scores more

29%

level

24%

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

47%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff