Elektron VN 1–1 Yenisey II: Result & Stats

Elektron VN

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yenisey II

10/2/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN39%

×Draw24%

Yenisey II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elektron VNExpected goals in this matchYenisey II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.54

Elektron VN

1.58

Yenisey II

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 76 away

0.87

creates per match

0.92

2.17

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Elektron VN

0.87

Yenisey II

0.92

allows per match

Elektron VN

2.17

Yenisey II

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Yenisey II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw

63%

Elektron VN or Yenisey II

76%

Draw or Yenisey II

61%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+

19%

Yenisey II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals

79%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

47%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

21%

Yenisey II 1+ goals

79%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

45%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

51%

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elektron VN scores more

39%

level

24%

Yenisey II scores more

37%

Elektron VN at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elektron VN will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff