Elektron VN 3–2 Torpedo Vladimir: Result & Stats

Elektron VN

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Torpedo Vladimir

11/12/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN27%

×Draw25%

Torpedo Vladimir48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elektron VNExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Vladimir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.63

Elektron VN

1.16

Torpedo Vladimir

1.63

Torpedo Vladimir creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 87 away

0.87

creates per match

1.08

2.17

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Elektron VN

0.87

Torpedo Vladimir

1.08

allows per match

Elektron VN

2.17

Torpedo Vladimir

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw

52%

Elektron VN or Torpedo Vladimir

75%

Draw or Torpedo Vladimir

73%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+

11%

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals

69%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

32%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

11%

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals

80%

Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals

48%

Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

36%

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.08 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elektron VN scores more

27%

level

25%

Torpedo Vladimir scores more

48%

Torpedo Vladimir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff