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Elektron VN vs Rodina Moskva III — Second League - Group 2 2020

Elektron VN
Elektron VN
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva III
Rodina Moskva III
8/10/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN30%
×Draw23%
Rodina Moskva III47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektron VN
1.44
Rodina Moskva III
1.85

Rodina Moskva III creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 39 away

creates per match

Elektron VN
0.87
Rodina Moskva III
1.54

allows per match

Elektron VN
2.17
Rodina Moskva III
2.00

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Rodina Moskva III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw
53%
Elektron VN or Rodina Moskva III
77%
Draw or Rodina Moskva III
70%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+
14%
Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals
76%
Elektron VN 2+ goals
42%
Elektron VN 3+ goals
18%
Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals
84%
Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals
55%
Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)
39%
Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Rodina Moskva III away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Rodina Moskva III defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rodina Moskva III attack 1.54 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elektron VN scores more
30%
level
23%
Rodina Moskva III scores more
47%

Rodina Moskva III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rodina Moskva III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elektron VN vs Rodina Moskva III

Elektron VN and Rodina Moskva III drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo in Velikiy Novgorod.