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Elektron VN vs Leningradets — Second League - Group 2 2020

Elektron VN
Elektron VN
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leningradets
Leningradets
9/22/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN16%
×Draw22%
Leningradets62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektron VN
0.82
Leningradets
1.87

Leningradets creates 128% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 46 away

creates per match

Elektron VN
0.87
Leningradets
1.57

allows per match

Elektron VN
2.17
Leningradets
0.78

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par
Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Leningradets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw
38%
Elektron VN or Leningradets
78%
Draw or Leningradets
84%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+
5%
Leningradets wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals
56%
Elektron VN 2+ goals
20%
Elektron VN 3+ goals
5%
Leningradets 1+ goals
85%
Leningradets 2+ goals
56%
Leningradets 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)
20%
Leningradets (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Leningradets attack 1.57 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Elektron VN scores more
16%
level
22%
Leningradets scores more
62%

Leningradets at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Elektron VN 1–1 Leningradets

Elektron VN and Leningradets drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo in Velikiy Novgorod.