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Elektron VN vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Elektron VN
Elektron VN
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
10/14/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN24%
×Draw23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektron VN
1.16
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.83

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 61 away

creates per match

Elektron VN
0.87
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Elektron VN
2.17
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw
47%
Elektron VN or Dinamo St. Petersburg
77%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
76%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+
9%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals
69%
Elektron VN 2+ goals
32%
Elektron VN 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)
31%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Elektron VN scores more
24%
level
23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
53%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Elektron VN 2–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg

Elektron VN beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo in Velikiy Novgorod.