Elektron VN 1–1 Dinamo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Elektron VN

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moskva II

5/15/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 7Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elektron VN21%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Moskva II56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elektron VNExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.81

Elektron VN

1.02

Dinamo Moskva II

1.81

Dinamo Moskva II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 70 away

0.87

creates per match

1.46

2.17

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Elektron VN

0.87

Dinamo Moskva II

1.46

allows per match

Elektron VN

2.17

Dinamo Moskva II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw

44%

Elektron VN or Dinamo Moskva II

77%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva II

79%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+

8%

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals

64%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

27%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

8%

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

28%

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Elektron VN scores more

21%

level

23%

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

56%

Dinamo Moskva II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff