Elektra 3–0 Vorwärts Brigittenau: Result & Stats

Elektra

FT

3 – 0

Vorwärts Brigittenau

8/22/2020

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz Elektra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elektra74%

×Draw15%

Vorwärts Brigittenau11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElektraExpected goals in this matchVorwärts Brigittenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

0.96

Elektra

2.76

Vorwärts Brigittenau

0.96

Elektra creates 188% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

3.20

creates per match

1.04

0.87

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Elektra

3.20

Vorwärts Brigittenau

1.04

allows per match

Elektra

0.87

Vorwärts Brigittenau

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elektra+0.00on par

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektra ↓

Vorwärts Brigittenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Elektra or draw

89%

Elektra or Vorwärts Brigittenau

85%

Draw or Vorwärts Brigittenau

26%

Winning margin

Elektra wins by 2+

53%

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Elektra 1+ goals

94%

Elektra 2+ goals

76%

Elektra 3+ goals

51%

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals

62%

Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals

25%

Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Elektra (draw refunded)

87%

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektra at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.32 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektra attack 3.20 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.76

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.04 + Elektra defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Elektra scores more

74%

level

15%

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more

11%

Elektra at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff