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Elektra vs First Vienna — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Elektra
Elektra
CANC
13:00
First Vienna
First Vienna
2/7/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 12Sportplatz Elektra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Elektra43%
×Draw22%
First Vienna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektra
1.95
First Vienna
1.78

Elektra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Elektra
3.20
First Vienna
2.69

allows per match

Elektra
0.87
First Vienna
0.69

finishing

Elektra+0.00on par
First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektra ↓

First Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Elektra or draw
64%
Elektra or First Vienna
78%
Draw or First Vienna
57%

Winning margin

Elektra wins by 2+
23%
First Vienna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Elektra 1+ goals
86%
Elektra 2+ goals
58%
Elektra 3+ goals
31%
First Vienna 1+ goals
83%
First Vienna 2+ goals
53%
First Vienna 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Elektra (draw refunded)
54%
First Vienna (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektra at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektra attack 3.20 + First Vienna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

First Vienna attack 2.69 + Elektra defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elektra scores more
43%
level
22%
First Vienna scores more
36%

Elektra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Elektra host First Vienna

February 7, 2021: Elektra take on First Vienna in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Elektra host First Vienna at Sportplatz Elektra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.