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Elektra vs Favoritner AC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Elektra
Elektra
CANC
00:00
Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
4/4/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 21Sportplatz Elektra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elektra66%
×Draw18%
Favoritner AC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektra
2.52
Favoritner AC
1.18

Elektra creates 114% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Elektra
3.20
Favoritner AC
1.49

allows per match

Elektra
0.87
Favoritner AC
1.84

finishing

Elektra+0.00on par
Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektra ↓

Favoritner AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Elektra or draw
84%
Elektra or Favoritner AC
82%
Draw or Favoritner AC
34%

Winning margin

Elektra wins by 2+
44%
Favoritner AC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Elektra 1+ goals
92%
Elektra 2+ goals
71%
Elektra 3+ goals
45%
Favoritner AC 1+ goals
69%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
33%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Elektra (draw refunded)
80%
Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektra at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektra attack 3.20 + Favoritner AC defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.52

Favoritner AC attack 1.49 + Elektra defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Elektra scores more
66%
level
18%
Favoritner AC scores more
16%

Elektra at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elektra vs Favoritner AC — Match Preview

Elektra face Favoritner AC on April 4, 2020 in this Landesliga - Wien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Elektra host Favoritner AC at Sportplatz Elektra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.