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Elektra vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Elektra
Elektra
FT
7 – 1
ASV 13
ASV 13
9/14/2019Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 5Sportplatz Elektra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elektra77%
×Draw13%
ASV 1310%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektra
3.09
ASV 13
1.06

Elektra creates 192% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Elektra
3.20
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Elektra
0.87
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Elektra+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektra ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Elektra or draw
90%
Elektra or ASV 13
87%
Draw or ASV 13
23%

Winning margin

Elektra wins by 2+
57%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Elektra 1+ goals
95%
Elektra 2+ goals
81%
Elektra 3+ goals
58%
ASV 13 1+ goals
65%
ASV 13 2+ goals
29%
ASV 13 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Elektra (draw refunded)
88%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektra at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektra attack 3.20 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 3.09

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Elektra defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Elektra scores more
77%
level
13%
ASV 13 scores more
10%

Elektra at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elektra vs ASV 13

Elektra beat ASV 13 7-1 in Landesliga - Wien on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Elektra in Wien.