Eastern Suburbs 1–4 Magpies Crusaders

Eastern Suburbs

FT

1 – 4

Magpies Crusaders

8/10/2019

Queensland NPL · Round 27Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Eastern Suburbs54%

×Draw20%

Magpies Crusaders26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern SuburbsExpected goals in this matchMagpies Crusaders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.61

Eastern Suburbs

2.38

Magpies Crusaders

1.61

Eastern Suburbs creates 48% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

2.12

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs

1.86

Magpies Crusaders

1.10

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs

2.12

Magpies Crusaders

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Magpies Crusaders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw

74%

Eastern Suburbs or Magpies Crusaders

80%

Draw or Magpies Crusaders

46%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

34%

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

91%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

68%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

42%

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

80%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

48%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

68%

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.12 · 81 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.86 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.38

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more

54%

level

20%

Magpies Crusaders scores more

26%

Eastern Suburbs at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff