Eléctrico 0–2 Amarante: Result & Stats

Eléctrico

FT

0 – 2

Amarante

9/22/2024

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal de Ponte de Sôr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eléctrico7%

×Draw11%

Amarante82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EléctricoExpected goals in this matchAmarante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

3.37

Eléctrico

0.94

Amarante

3.37

Amarante creates 259% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

0.33

creates per match

1.73

5.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Eléctrico

0.33

Amarante

1.73

allows per match

Eléctrico

5.00

Amarante

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eléctrico+0.00on par

Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eléctrico ↓

Amarante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Eléctrico or draw

18%

Eléctrico or Amarante

89%

Draw or Amarante

93%

Winning margin

Eléctrico wins by 2+

2%

Amarante wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Eléctrico 1+ goals

61%

Eléctrico 2+ goals

24%

Eléctrico 3+ goals

7%

Amarante 1+ goals

96%

Amarante 2+ goals

84%

Amarante 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Eléctrico (draw refunded)

8%

Amarante (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eléctrico at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eléctrico attack 0.33 + Amarante defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.94

Amarante attack 1.73 + Eléctrico defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Eléctrico scores more

7%

level

11%

Amarante scores more

82%

Amarante at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff