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Elect-Sport vs Esperance Tunis — CAF Champions League 2019

Elect-Sport
Elect-Sport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
9/15/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Omnisports Idriss Mahamat Ouya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elect-Sport33%
×Draw31%
Esperance Tunis36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elect-Sport
0.95
Esperance Tunis
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

creates per match

Elect-Sport
1.00
Esperance Tunis
1.02

allows per match

Elect-Sport
1.00
Esperance Tunis
0.90

finishing

Elect-Sport+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elect-Sport ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Elect-Sport or draw
64%
Elect-Sport or Esperance Tunis
69%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
67%

Winning margin

Elect-Sport wins by 2+
12%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Elect-Sport 1+ goals
61%
Elect-Sport 2+ goals
25%
Elect-Sport 3+ goals
7%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
64%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
27%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Elect-Sport (draw refunded)
48%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elect-Sport at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elect-Sport attack 1.00 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + Elect-Sport defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Elect-Sport scores more
33%
level
31%
Esperance Tunis scores more
36%

Esperance Tunis at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elect-Sport vs Esperance Tunis

Elect-Sport and Esperance Tunis drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Idriss Mahamat Ouya in N'Djaména.