Eldense 1–0 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tarazona

Dioni 22' (pen)

12/13/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Eldense60%

×Draw25%

Tarazona15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.65

Eldense

1.59

Tarazona

0.65

Eldense creates 145% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.87

creates per match

0.56

0.74

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Eldense

1.87

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Eldense

0.74

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

85%

Eldense or Tarazona

75%

Draw or Tarazona

40%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

33%

Tarazona wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

80%

Eldense 2+ goals

47%

Eldense 3+ goals

21%

Tarazona 1+ goals

48%

Tarazona 2+ goals

14%

Tarazona 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

80%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.87 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Eldense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eldense scores more

60%

level

25%

Tarazona scores more

15%

Eldense at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

DioniPenalty

40'

Martinez Chechu

42'

M. Bustillo

45+3'

A. Lopez

46'

B. Calvo← M. Bustillo

50'

R. Quintanilla

55'

D. Soto← J. Gomez

65'

G. Macho← R. Quintanilla

74'

S. Armero← D. Rodriguez

76'

82'

86'

88'

89'

89'

89'

J. Martinez← I. Alonso

89'

A. Fita← A. Lopez

Eldense

Tarazona

1

14

5

6

3

2

▼

Lopez

22

Vaquero

15

▼

Alonso

23

▼

Rodriguez

10

▼

Aguero

11

▼

1

17

3

2

21

12

8

▼

Bustillo

16

▼

Quintanil

10

▼

Fidel

9

⚽

Dioni

11

▼

Bellari

Manager: José Luis Oltra

46'▲B. Calvo←▼M. Bustillo

65'▲G. Macho←▼R. Quintanilla

89'▲A. Ibarrondo←▼Fidel

89'▲R. Nunez←▼H. Bellari

Eldense substitutes

13Valencia4Dumic5Gaixas6Calvo15Billups18Macho19Ibarrondo22Nunez

Manager: Juanma Barrero

55'▲D. Soto←▼J. Gomez

74'▲S. Armero←▼D. Rodriguez

82'▲D. Cubillas←▼Aguero

89'▲J. Martinez←▼I. Alonso

89'▲A. Fita←▼A. Lopez

Tarazona substitutes

19Armero20Martinez27Fita9Cubillas7Soto13Amigo