Eldense 1–2 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijon

4/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 35Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense37%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gijon34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.11

Eldense

1.17

Sporting Gijon

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 169 away

1.19

creates per match

0.90

1.33

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Eldense

1.19

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

Eldense

1.33

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

66%

Eldense or Sporting Gijon

71%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

63%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

16%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

69%

Eldense 2+ goals

33%

Eldense 3+ goals

11%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

67%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

30%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

52%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Eldense scores more

37%

level

29%

Sporting Gijon scores more

34%

Eldense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff