Eldense 1–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

Cris Montes 66' (pen)

2/19/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Eldense48%

×Draw26%

Sabadell25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.98

Eldense

1.47

Sabadell

0.98

Eldense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.87

creates per match

1.23

0.74

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Eldense

1.87

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Eldense

0.74

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

75%

Eldense or Sabadell

74%

Draw or Sabadell

52%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

24%

Sabadell wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

77%

Eldense 2+ goals

43%

Eldense 3+ goals

18%

Sabadell 1+ goals

62%

Sabadell 2+ goals

26%

Sabadell 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

66%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.87 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Eldense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eldense scores more

48%

level

26%

Sabadell scores more

25%

Eldense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

32'

46'

56'

59'

Álex Bernal← Miguel Núñez

59'

Joel Jorquera← Cristian López

64'

A. Ortola

66'

Cris MontesPenalty

67'

David Astals← Cristian Herrera

67'

MarcVargas← Adán Gurdiel

68'

Sergi Altimira← Pau Resta

70'

Pedro Capó← Juanto

80'

Jaume Piñol← Armando

81'

Fran Carnicer← Sergio Ortu

81'

Jesús Clemente← Cris Montes

84'

A. Fernandez

Eldense

Sabadell

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Estévez

59'▲Álex Bernal←▼Miguel Núñez

59'▲Joel Jorquera←▼Cristian López

70'▲Pedro Capó←▼Juanto

81'▲Fran Carnicer←▼Sergio Ortu

81'▲Jesús Clemente←▼Cris Montes

Eldense substitutes

BernalJorqueraCapóCarnicerClementeCerdánGarcíaStamatakisPajareroFortePardoEstació

Manager: Miki Lladó

46'▲Armando←▼Raúl Baena

67'▲David Astals←▼Cristian Herrera

67'▲MarcVargas←▼Adán Gurdiel

68'▲Sergi Altimira←▼Pau Resta

80'▲Jaume Piñol←▼Armando

Sabadell substitutes

ArmandoAstalsMarcVargasAltimiraPiñolGualdaDiesteLópezPuig

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Eldense 1–0 Sabadell

Eldense beat Sabadell 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 19, 2023.

Goals: Cris Montes (66' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.

Eldense vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Eldense 1–0 Sabadell