Eldense 2–0 Hércules: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hércules

J. Clemente 61'

Dioni 16'

11/16/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Eldense58%

×Draw24%

Hércules18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchHércules

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.84

Eldense

1.70

Hércules

0.84

Eldense creates 102% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.87

creates per match

0.95

0.74

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Eldense

1.87

Hércules

0.95

allows per match

Eldense

0.74

Hércules

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Hércules →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

82%

Eldense or Hércules

76%

Draw or Hércules

42%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

32%

Hércules wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

82%

Eldense 2+ goals

51%

Eldense 3+ goals

24%

Hércules 1+ goals

57%

Hércules 2+ goals

21%

Hércules 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

76%

Hércules (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.87 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hércules attack 0.95 + Eldense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eldense scores more

58%

level

24%

Hércules scores more

18%

Eldense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Dioni

40'

J. Clemente← J. Vallejo

44'

45+3'

56'

57'

61'

67'

69'

70'

74'

R. de Palmas← A. Aranda

75'

V. Gomes← C. Mangada

78'

Dioni

88'

G. Macho← Fidel

88'

R. Ibanez← Dioni

89'

F. Sol

90'

R. de Palmas

90+4'

M. Bustillo

Eldense

Hércules

1

2

3

4

24

11

8

▼

Mangada

22

▼

Aranda

14

▼

Hamed

18

▼

19

1

19

2

3

23

▼

Vallejo

11

▼

12

7

8

10

▼

Fidel

9

⚽

▼

Dioni

Manager: José Luis Oltra

40'▲J. Clemente←▼J. Vallejo

45+3'▲D. Dumic←▼H. Bellari

88'▲G. Macho←▼Fidel

88'▲R. Ibanez←▼Dioni

Eldense substitutes

4Dumic5Gaixas6Calvo15Billups13Valencia17Clemente18Macho20Ibanez22Nunez26Jimenez

Manager: Rubén Torrecilla

57'▲J. De Leon←▼C. Rojas

67'▲Slavy←▼N. Ben Hamed

74'▲R. de Palmas←▼A. Aranda

75'▲V. Gomes←▼C. Mangada

Hércules substitutes

30Mompean21Retu5Monsalve15Cantero28Galvan16Gomes17Leon10Espinosa23Palmas9Slavy