Eldense 0–0 FC Cartagena: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Cartagena

3/15/2024

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense42%

×Draw27%

FC Cartagena31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchFC Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.14

Eldense

1.38

FC Cartagena

1.14

Eldense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

1.19

creates per match

0.95

1.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Eldense

1.19

FC Cartagena

0.95

allows per match

Eldense

1.33

FC Cartagena

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

FC Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

69%

Eldense or FC Cartagena

73%

Draw or FC Cartagena

58%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

20%

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

75%

Eldense 2+ goals

40%

Eldense 3+ goals

16%

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

68%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

32%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

58%

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eldense scores more

42%

level

27%

FC Cartagena scores more

31%

Eldense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Kiko Olivas

FC Cartagena · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Tomas Mejías

37'

Jesús Clemente

52'

David Timor

58'

F. Andone← Álex Bernal

58'

Cris Montes← Jesús Clemente

69'

Arnau Ortiz← T. Alarcón

69'

Mikel Rico← Darío Poveda

69'

Alfredo Ortuño← Diego Moreno

71'

Arnau Solà← Kiko Olivas

74'

Mario Soberón

77'

Juanto← Mario Soberón

77'

Joel Jorquera← Iván Chapela

85'

Pedro Capó← David Timor

85'

J. Narváez← Luis Muñoz

90+1'

Dario Đumić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EldenseFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots8

9Corners1

19Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target2

7Off Target4

5Blocked2

6Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

356Total Passes273

241Accurate Passes152

68%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Eldense vs FC Cartagena

Eldense and FC Cartagena drew 0-0 in Segunda División on March 15, 2024.

Eldense controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.

Eldense vs FC Cartagena — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Eldense vs FC Cartagena