Eldense 2–3 Castellón: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Castellón

D. Đumić 25'

Sergio Ortu 18'

De Miguel 42'

K. Mamah 38', 13'

10/6/2024

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense40%

×Draw26%

Castellón34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.23

Eldense

1.36

Castellón

1.23

Eldense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 64 away

1.19

creates per match

1.14

1.33

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Eldense

1.19

Castellón

1.14

allows per match

Eldense

1.33

Castellón

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

66%

Eldense or Castellón

74%

Draw or Castellón

60%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

18%

Castellón wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

74%

Eldense 2+ goals

39%

Eldense 3+ goals

16%

Castellón 1+ goals

71%

Castellón 2+ goals

35%

Castellón 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

54%

Castellón (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + Castellón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Castellón attack 1.14 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eldense scores more

40%

level

26%

Castellón scores more

34%

Eldense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Mamah

Castellón · F

8.9

Match Events

13'

K. Mamah↳ Cala

18'

Sergio Ortu↳ Nacho Quintana

25'

D. Đumić↳ David Timor

38'

K. Mamah

42'

De Miguel↳ Cala

49'

Fran Gámez

56'

Sergio Moyita← Cala

57'

Juanto← M. Diouri

57'

Camarasa← David Timor

57'

Iván Chapela← Fran Gámez

57'

Douglas Aurélio← De Miguel

66'

Josep Calavera← Óscar Gil

67'

D. Chirino← J. Willems

75'

Francisco Geraldes← Nacho Quintana

86'

D. Flakus Bosilj← K. Mamah

90+5'

Iñigo Sebastián Magana

90+7'

Raúl Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EldenseCastellón

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots13

8Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots13

6On Target6

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

13Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

282Total Passes365

195Accurate Passes281

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4