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Eldense vs Calahorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Eldense
Eldense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Calahorra
Calahorra
12/18/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Eldense54%
×Draw27%
Calahorra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.47
Calahorra
0.76

Eldense creates 93% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.87
Calahorra
0.78

allows per match

Eldense
0.74
Calahorra
1.07

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Calahorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
81%
Eldense or Calahorra
73%
Draw or Calahorra
46%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
28%
Calahorra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
77%
Eldense 2+ goals
43%
Eldense 3+ goals
18%
Calahorra 1+ goals
53%
Calahorra 2+ goals
18%
Calahorra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
74%
Calahorra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.87 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Calahorra attack 0.78 + Eldense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eldense scores more
54%
level
27%
Calahorra scores more
19%

Eldense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eldense vs Calahorra

Eldense beat Calahorra 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.