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Eldense vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Eldense
Eldense
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Benigànim
Benigànim
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 14Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eldense71%
×Draw19%
Benigànim10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
2.06
Benigànim
0.60

Eldense creates 243% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 44 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.46
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Eldense
0.50
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
90%
Eldense or Benigànim
81%
Draw or Benigànim
29%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
46%
Benigànim wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
87%
Eldense 2+ goals
61%
Eldense 3+ goals
34%
Benigànim 1+ goals
45%
Benigànim 2+ goals
12%
Benigànim 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
88%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.46 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.06

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Eldense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Eldense scores more
71%
level
19%
Benigànim scores more
10%

Eldense at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eldense vs Benigànim

Eldense beat Benigànim 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.