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Eldense vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Eldense
Eldense
CANC
00:00
Alzira
Alzira
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 30Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eldense50%
×Draw29%
Alzira22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.32
Alzira
0.76

Eldense creates 74% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.46
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

Eldense
0.50
Alzira
1.18

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
78%
Eldense or Alzira
71%
Draw or Alzira
50%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
24%
Alzira wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
73%
Eldense 2+ goals
38%
Eldense 3+ goals
15%
Alzira 1+ goals
53%
Alzira 2+ goals
18%
Alzira 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
70%
Alzira (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.46 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Alzira attack 1.02 + Eldense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eldense scores more
50%
level
29%
Alzira scores more
22%

Eldense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eldense host Alzira

March 22, 2020: Eldense take on Alzira in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eldense host Alzira at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.