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Eldense vs Alcoyano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Eldense
Eldense
CANC
00:00
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Eldense35%
×Draw30%
Alcoyano35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.05
Alcoyano
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.46
Alcoyano
1.64

allows per match

Eldense
0.46
Alcoyano
0.64

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
65%
Eldense or Alcoyano
70%
Draw or Alcoyano
65%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
14%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
65%
Eldense 2+ goals
28%
Eldense 3+ goals
9%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
65%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
28%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
50%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.46 + Alcoyano defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Alcoyano attack 1.64 + Eldense defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Eldense scores more
35%
level
30%
Alcoyano scores more
35%

Eldense at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eldense vs Alcoyano — Match Preview

Eldense face Alcoyano on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eldense host Alcoyano at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.