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Elche vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reus
Reus
S. Kaba 77'
Vítor 73'
5/28/2017Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 40Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Elche47%
×Draw32%
Reus21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.13
Reus
0.64

Elche creates 77% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 37 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Reus
0.51

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Reus
0.95

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Elche or draw
79%
Elche or Reus
68%
Draw or Reus
53%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
20%
Reus wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
68%
Elche 2+ goals
31%
Elche 3+ goals
11%
Reus 1+ goals
47%
Reus 2+ goals
14%
Reus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
70%
Reus (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Reus away — creates 0.51, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Reus defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Reus attack 0.51 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elche scores more
47%
level
32%
Reus scores more
21%

Elche at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
PelayoElcheElche · M
7.8

Match Events

30'
José Ángel← Josete Malagón
46'
Raphael Guzzo← Fran Carbià
47'
Ángel Martínez
55'
Jorge Miramón← Ángel Martínez
57'
Jesus Olmo
68'
D. Malonga← Álex
73'
Vítor
76'
S. Kaba← Rober Correa
77'
S. Kaba
82'
Borja Valle
83'
Melli← M. Chrisantus

Possession

50%Elche

Shots

22Elche

Pass accuracy

51%Elche

Statistics

ElcheReus
Overview
50%Possession50%
22Total Shots7
5Corners1
13Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots7
4On Target3
14Off Target3
4Blocked1
12Inside Box6
10Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
456Total Passes486
380Accurate Passes396
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Elche 1 – 1 Reus

Elche and Reus drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 28, 2017.

Goals: Vítor (73'), S. Kaba (77').

Elche controlled possession (50%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.