Elche 2–1 Rayo Majadahonda: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

Y. Qasmi 69'

Nino 59'

F. Varela 71'

5/5/2019

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Elche53%

×Draw25%

Rayo Majadahonda22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.93

Elche

1.58

Rayo Majadahonda

0.93

Elche creates 70% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 20 away

1.31

creates per match

1.10

0.76

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Rayo Majadahonda

1.10

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Rayo Majadahonda

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Elche or draw

78%

Elche or Rayo Majadahonda

75%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

47%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

28%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

79%

Elche 2+ goals

47%

Elche 3+ goals

21%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

61%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

24%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

70%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.10 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Elche scores more

53%

level

25%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

22%

Elche at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Varela

Rayo Majadahonda · M

8.0

Match Events

20'

Ernesto Galan

57'

David Morillas

59'

Nino

61'

Manu del Moral← Ernesto Galán

66'

Héctor Hernández← Dani Romera

69'

Y. Qasmi↳ Josán Fernández

71'

Borja Giner← Iván Sánchez

71'

F. Varela↳ Óscar Valentín

75'

Carlos Castro← Y. Qasmi

81'

Karim Azamoum

81'

Manuel Sánchez← K. Azamoum

88'

Javi Flores

89'

Benito Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheRayo

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots14

8Corners2

17Fouls22

Shots

15Total Shots14

5On Target3

7Off Target9

3Blocked2

11Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

366Total Passes451

278Accurate Passes372

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls22

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1