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Elche vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
12/19/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Elche49%
×Draw27%
Mirandes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.40
Mirandes
0.89

Elche creates 57% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 148 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Elche
0.77
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elche or draw
76%
Elche or Mirandes
73%
Draw or Mirandes
51%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
24%
Mirandes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
75%
Elche 2+ goals
41%
Elche 3+ goals
17%
Mirandes 1+ goals
59%
Mirandes 2+ goals
22%
Mirandes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
67%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.77 · 86 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Elche defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elche scores more
49%
level
27%
Mirandes scores more
24%

Elche at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Elche 0–0 Mirandes

Elche and Mirandes drew 0-0 in Segunda División on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.